04.12.09
Posted in Climate Change, Transportation
at 2:19 pm
I’ve been a little baffled by the tar sands’ villainization in the climate literature for some time. While a few photographs can clearly show that the tar sands have dire impacts on the local environment (as a recent National Geographic special showed), I haven’t really understood why the tar sands have been singled out for so much venom in the climate literature. About two years ago, I first saw the stats: if you measure all emissions from extraction to the tailpipe (a “well-to-wheel” basis), the tar sands are between 15–40% worse than conventional oil. Why, then, is tar sands oil so much worse than—say—a vehicle with 15–40% poorer fuel efficiency? Here in Canada, the tar sands represent a lot of potential wealth and jobs; why should our oil get singled out relative to Saudi crude?
My reading recently took me past a figure that illuminated the problem for me in many ways. The figure below is adapted slightly from Farrell and Brandt, “Risks of the Oil Transition,” Environmental Research Letters 1(1), 2006, although I’m sure it can be found in many places in the literature.
Global supply of liquid hydrocarbons from all fossil resources and greenhouse gas emissions. EOR is enhanced oil recovery, GTL and CTL are gas- and coal-derived synthetic liquid fuels. The CTL and GTL quantities are theoretical maxima because they assume all gas and coal are used as feedstock for fuels and none for other purposes. The lightly shaded portions of the graph represent less certain resources. GHG emissions in the lower figure are separated into fuel combustion (downstream) and production and processing (upstream) emissions by a dashed line. [Original figure included only the darker top of each bar, indicating the range in emissions estimates; modified to extend the bar down to zero, to emphasize the total area.]
The horizontal axis here represents the number of barrels of oil possible with each source, the vertical axis represents the greenhouse gas emissions per barrel, and the area of each bar is therefore the total emissions if all possible fuel of that type is extracted and used.
The black bar to the left of the axis represents the emissions from all oil burned to date. Everything to the right of the axis represents the potential emissions from conventional and unconventional oil, in order of price per barrel. The oil used to date is dwarfed but what remains in the ground and could be emitted in the future.
Coming back to the tar sands, a few points can be drawn from the figure:
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03.22.09
Posted in Science, Transportation
at 10:15 am
Last summer, I submitted my first paper to the Transportation Research Board (TRB) conference (ultimately accepted, and presented in January 2009). They have recently started accepting papers in PDF form instead of requiring a Word file—and this meant that I could write my paper in LaTeX, my preferred document processing system.
However, TRB doesn’t provide any LaTeX templates, so I took a shot at rolling my own based on the TRB Style Manual. It’s very primitive in its present state, but it’ll handle the page layout, headings, captions, fonts, and bibliography style.
Unfortunately, they still require a Word document if you plan to publish in their journal, Transportation Research Record. I’m submitting my paper to a different journal for publication, and that journal accepts LaTeX submissions. But if the ultimate destination for your paper doesn’t accept LaTeX or PDFs, take care.
For the record, a little discussion of my adventures in creating all of this. Most of it is fairly straightforward stuff—find the right packages to adjust margins, heading styles, fonts and so on. (Largely, this makes the document more ugly. The TRB journal format is quite unattractive, Word-like and dense, if you ask me.)
The one tricky part was the bibliography style. The recommended TRB citation style is different from any of the built-in LaTeX and BibTeX styles, and I wanted to replicate it correctly. Thankfully, I found the excellent custom-bib program (a.k.a. makebst), which walks through a series of questions to produce a tailor-made Bibliography Style file (bst). I still had to make a few final edits to the resulting bst file (to adjust the volume/number citation style, and technical reports) but thankfully didn’t need to learn much about the cryptic and obscure language they use.
At any rate, it was a surprisingly painless procedure, requiring under a day to get everything working. Now hopefully some other transportation researchers will find this useful and reuse the template.
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02.24.09
Posted in Climate Change
at 9:25 pm
“In a worst-case scenario, where no action is taken to check the rise in greenhouse gas emissions, temperatures would most likely rise by more than 5°C by the end of the century.”
—Dr. Vicky Pope, head of climate change predictions at the UK’s Hadley Centre, Dec. 2008
“Without a change in policy, the world is on a path for a rise in global temperature of up to 6°C.”
—International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook, Nov. 2008 [traditionally a very conservative agency]
“We are on the precipice of climate system tipping points beyond which there is no redemption.”
—James Hansen, director, Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA), December 2005
One year ago in a previous post, I thought these types of projections were alarmist and unwarranted. Since then, I’ve found steadily more people suggesting similarly dramatic numbers. Many believe that an average global warming of 1°C is unavoidable, and some claim that—if we do nothing to stop it—we could be headed for 5°C or more. [Update: and that’s just the global average. Over inland North America, you can add roughly another 50%, for a total of 7.5°C. Coastal North America would see lower temperature changes, but would face the dire impacts of sea level rise of 0.8 - 2.0 metres.]
The IPCC Numbers
Is there a definitive scientific source for these projections, however? With a little digging, I’ve found similar estimates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) itself, a source that I consider authoritative. The figure below shows annual emission scenarios (left) and temperature effects (right) for six different scenarios. For reasons I’ll explain later, I believe A1FI and A2 are the two scenarios that correspond most closely with a “business-as-usual” approach to carbon emissions. A1B is also worth considering, as a scenario “business-as-usual” is not possible due to limited fossil fuel supplies. (While the peak of conventional oil production is almost certainly around the corner, this scenario could well require constrained supplies of all fossil fuels—including coal, tar sands oil, shale oil and natural gas.)
Source: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers, Figure SPM.5
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01.26.09
Posted in Climate Mitigation, Climate Change, Transportation, Politics, Books
at 10:49 pm
I’ve finally found the climate change book that I can recommend widely: Hell and High Water by Joseph Romm, 2006. I urge you to read it, as soon as you can.
Why do I recommend this particular book?
- Clear and accessible. A wide audience can appreciate this book: the language is simple, the opening sections are organized into a story arc, and the numbers and scientific details are kept to a minimum.
- Smart science and smart politics. There are dozens of excellent books on the science alone, and a few good political ones, but very few that really understand both.
- Solutions, not just problems. If you’re going to paint a picture of a monumental challenge to humanity, have the grace to show how we might solve it.
- Alarming, but not alarmist. The problem is a daunting one, but Romm does not exaggerate it or lend any more terror to the issue than warranted by the science.
- Urgency. The problem is truly urgent, and demands immediate action within the next decade. The reasons for this are challenging to explain, but absolutely necessary.
- Achievable fixes, not impossible dreams and moral lessons. This isn’t an environmentalist’s rant about the evils of consumerism. Romm spares us the sermons and gives a clear illustration of the way forward, without requiring massive change from hundreds of millions of unwilling people.
- Good references. The book itself is not complete, but Romm’s blog answered many of my follow-on questions after I finished the book.
Joe Romm has a blog (ClimateProgress), but I really recommend reading his book first. The blog is more technical, but it’s also less suitable just because it’s a blog and not a book: less structured, more opinionated, and including news that is often depressing. That said, it’s a great place to continue learning about the subject after you finish the book. The package of policies he proposes in the book for 2010-2060 are part of path leading to 550ppm CO2, based on the 2006 consensus. Since then, a number of scientific findings have pushed Romm to prefer a 450ppm target, and he has put forward a series of posts on the subject; I’d suggest starting with the [Updated:] climate change impacts discussion, then the full solutions package [updated March 2009] and then reading the rest of the series. But really, get the book first.
If you’re a climate skeptic who is willing to be persuaded by good arguments, please give the book a try. You may need to suspend the disbelief for a while, and particularly forget some of the disinformation you’ve likely absorbed from the popular media. Keep the skepticism—it’s healthy!—hear the argument out, and then follow up with one of the dozens of books on the science itself, or one of the documentaries showing how the climate denial industry has waged a relentless P.R. campaign to prevent action on this issue. If you’re a science major or researcher, you can probably understand how the IPCC process works, and can dig deep into the IPCC reports themselves and inspect the arguments first-hand. If you’re not a science major, the whole process is much more opaque and the denial industry arguments can sound persuasive; I don’t have a good book to make the case to skeptical non-scientists yet.
Coming up soon: a review of the urgency, and a look at the transportation component of Romm’s plan.
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