@comment{{This file has been generated by bib2bib 1.91}}
@comment{{Command line: /usr/bin/bib2bib -ob keyword_spatial_modelling.bib -c 'keywords: "spatial modelling"' ref.bib}}
@techreport{CasCro06,
author = {Christian J.E.~Castle and Andrew T.~Crooks},
title = {Principles and Concepts of Agent-Based Modelling for
Developing Geospatial Simulations},
year = 2006,
month = sep,
institution = {University College London Centre for Advanced Spatial
Analysis},
address = {London, UK},
type = {Working Paper},
number = 110,
keywords = {computer science, spatial modelling, agent-based modelling},
status = {read}
}
@incollection{Fer00,
author = {Nils Ferrand},
title = {Multi-reactive Agents Paradigm for Spatial Modelling},
editor = {A.~Stewart Fotheringham and Michael Wegener},
booktitle = {Spatial Models and {GIS}: New Potential and New Models},
year = 2000,
publisher = {Taylor and Francis},
address = {London, UK},
pages = {167--184},
keywords = {geographic information systems, spatial modelling},
status = {read},
annoteurl = { http://davidpritchard.org/sustrans/FotWeg00/index.html }
}
@incollection{Fis00,
author = {Manfred M.~Fischer},
title = {Spatial Interaction Models and the Role of the Geographic
Information Systems},
editor = {A.~Stewart Fotheringham and Michael Wegener},
booktitle = {Spatial Models and {GIS}: New Potential and New Models},
year = 2000,
publisher = {Taylor and Francis},
address = {London, UK},
pages = {33--43},
keywords = {geographic information systems, spatial modelling},
status = {read},
annoteurl = { http://davidpritchard.org/sustrans/FotWeg00/index.html }
}
@incollection{Fot00,
author = {A.~Stewart Fotheringham},
title = {{GIS}-based Spatial Modelling: A Step Forwards or a Step
Backwards?},
editor = {A.~Stewart Fotheringham and Michael Wegener},
booktitle = {Spatial Models and {GIS}: New Potential and New Models},
year = 2000,
publisher = {Taylor and Francis},
address = {London, UK},
pages = {21--30},
keywords = {geographic information systems, spatial modelling},
status = {read},
annoteurl = { http://davidpritchard.org/sustrans/FotWeg00/index.html }
}
@book{FotWeg00,
editor = {A.~Stewart Fotheringham and Michael Wegener},
title = {Spatial Models and {GIS}: New Potential and New Models},
year = 2000,
publisher = {Taylor and Francis},
address = {London, UK},
keywords = {geographic information systems, spatial modelling, transport modelling},
status = {read},
annoteurl = { http://davidpritchard.org/sustrans/FotWeg00/index.html }
}
@article{Har94,
author = {Britton Harris},
title = {The real issues concerning {L}ee's ``{R}equiem''.},
journal = {Journal of the American Planning Association},
volume = 60,
number = 1,
pages = {31--34},
year = 1994,
annote = {
Dismisses Lee73. Mostly critical of the tone of the article, and
the divisions it produced in the planning community, divorcing
planning from modelling for a long period. Claims are mostly about
Lee's rhetoric, the authorities he appealed to, and his limited
understanding of the models. Comparisons with GIS are unfortunate,
since GIS has a much larger market and hence has seen much faster
development than transport modelling.
},
keywords = {spatial modelling, transport modelling},
status = {read}
}
@incollection{HolLinMal00,
author = {Einer Holm and Urban Lindgren and Gunnar Malmberg},
title = {Dynamic Microsimulation},
editor = {A.~Stewart Fotheringham and Michael Wegener},
booktitle = {Spatial Models and {GIS}: New Potential and New Models},
year = 2000,
publisher = {Taylor and Francis},
address = {London, UK},
pages = {143--165},
keywords = {geographic information systems, spatial modelling},
status = {read},
annoteurl = { http://davidpritchard.org/sustrans/FotWeg00/index.html }
}
@incollection{LanZha00,
author = {John D.~Landis and Ming Zhang},
title = {Using {GIS} to improve urban activity and forecasting models:
three examples},
editor = {A.~Stewart Fotheringham and Michael Wegener},
booktitle = {Spatial Models and {GIS}: New Potential and New Models},
year = 2000,
publisher = {Taylor and Francis},
address = {London, UK},
pages = {63--81},
keywords = {geographic information systems, spatial modelling, transport modelling},
status = {read},
annoteurl = { http://davidpritchard.org/sustrans/FotWeg00/index.html }
}
@article{Lee94,
author = {Douglas B.~Lee},
title = {Retrospective on Large-Scale Urban Models},
journal = {Journal of the American Planning Association},
volume = 60,
number = 1,
pages = {35--40},
year = 1994,
annote = {
Some interesting (modern) comments on the problems in urban
modelling. The need for more scientific method is discussed, and
the need to contribute to theory as well as drawing from theory.
Critiques from Lee73: black box method (even modellers don't
understand internal workings of models); general purpose nature;
command-and-control assumption. For better science, models need:
transparency; replicability; and pragmatic evaluation. Travel
prices and parking prices should be explicit parts of models.
Comprehensive models have only limited value. Urban models compare
quite negatively with GIS development over the same period, which
suffered from similar shortcomings in the 70s (data and computation
constraints), but has flourished since.
},
keywords = {spatial modelling},
status = {read}
}
@incollection{MatMikSan00,
author = {Hel{\`e}ne Mathian and Boguslaw Mikula and Lena Sanders},
title = {Modelling the Dynamics of Spatial Systems within a {GIS}:
Problems and Perspectives},
editor = {A.~Stewart Fotheringham and Michael Wegener},
booktitle = {Spatial Models and {GIS}: New Potential and New Models},
year = 2000,
publisher = {Taylor and Francis},
address = {London, UK},
pages = {203--221},
keywords = {geographic information systems, spatial modelling},
status = {read},
annoteurl = { http://davidpritchard.org/sustrans/FotWeg00/index.html }
}
@article{MilHunAbrSal04,
author = {Eric J.~Miller and John Douglas Hunt and John Edward Abraham and
Paul A.~Salvini},
title = {Microsimulating Urban Systems},
year = 2004,
month = jan,
journal = {Computers, Environment and Urban Systems},
volume = 28,
number = 1,
pages = {9--44},
abstract = {
This paper presents a status report concerning on-going research
and development work by a team of Canadian researchers to
develop a microsimulation, agent-based, integrated model of
urban land use and transportation. It describes in some detail
the overall design and current status of the ILUTE (Integrated
Land Use, Transportation, Environment) modelling system
under development. The overall purpose of ILUTE is to simulate
the evolution of an entire urban region over an extended period
of time. Such a model is intended to replace conventional,
aggregate, static models for the analysis of a broad range of
transportation, housing and other urban policies. Agents being
simulated in the model include individuals, households and
establishments. The model operates on a ``100\% sample'' (i.e.,
the entire population) of agents which, in the base
case, are synthesized from more aggregate data such as census
tables and which are then evolved over time by the model. A
range of modelling methods are employed within the modelling
system to represent individual agents' behaviours, including
simple state transition models, random utility choice models,
rule-based ``computational process'' models, and hybrids of these
approaches. A major emphasis within ILUTE is the development of
microsimulation models of market demand-supply interactions,
particularly within the residential and commercial real estate
markets. In addition, travel demand is modelled explicitly as
the outcome of a combination of household and individual
decisions concerning the participation in out-of-home
activities over the course of a day. Spatial entities in the
model include buildings, residential dwelling units and
commercial floorspace, as well as aggregate ``spatial
containers'' such as traffic zones, census tracts or grid cells.
},
annote = {
Good references: ConLaw02, VelKapTim00, VosPetDon02.
Their discussion of spatial representation is interesting, and
echos (somewhat) my own thoughts on the subject. They have two
sections: one on residential representation and one on
representations for firms. I'm curious to see
how far they've come in the last few months.
They discuss real estate markets, with zonal average prices. Offers
can have individual prices, though, overriding zonal averages. It
seems that this idea would mesh better with building-based spatial
representation---grid based representation makes it hard to store
data like ``sale price'' or compute zonal averages.
I'm a bit baffled by their commercial development model. The
grid-based approach they used seems to be based on cellular
automata, using logit models for state transitions. But they don't
consider adjacency information, which seems like it would be
essential for firms---who wants floorspace divided into a random
patchwork? Can you really just rearrange floorspace as needed?
Their closing paragraphs are encouraging: they really don't want
zones, anywhere.
},
keywords = {transport modelling, ilute, spatial modelling},
status = {read}
}
@inproceedings{MoeSchWeg02,
author = {Rolf Moeckel and Carsten Sch{\"u}rmann and Michael Wegener},
title = {Microsimulation of Urban Land Use},
year = 2002,
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 42nd Congress of the European Regional
Science Association},
publisher = {European Regional Science Assocation},
address = {Dortmund, Germany},
url = {http://www.raumplanung.uni-dortmund.de/rwp/ersa2002/cd-rom/papers/261.pdf},
abstract = {
The project ILUMASS (Integrated Land-Use Modelling and
Transportation System Simulation) aims at embedding a
microscopic dynamic simulation model of urban traffic flows
into a comprehensive model system incorporating both changes of
land use and the resulting changes in transport demand.
The land-use component of ILUMASS will be based on the land-use
parts of an existing urban simulation model, but is to be
microscopic like the transport parts of ILUMASS.
Microsimulation modules will include models of demographic
development, household formation, firm lifecycles, residential
and non-residential construction, labour mobility on the
regional labour market and household mobility on the regional
housing market. These modules will be closely linked with the
models of daily activity patterns and travel and goods
movements modelled in the transport parts of ILUMASS developed
by other partners of the project team. The design of the land
use model takes into account that the collection of individual
micro data (i.e. data which because of their micro location can
be associated with individual buildings or small groups
of buildings) or the retrieval of individual micro data
from administrative registers for planning purposes is neither
possible nor, for privacy reasons, desirable. The land use
model therefore works with synthetic micro data which can be
retrieved from generally accessible public data.
ILUMASS is a group project of institutes of the universities of
Aachen, Bamberg, Dortmund, Cologne and Wuppertal under the
co-ordination of the Transport Research Institute of the German
Aerospace Centre (DLR). Study region for tests and first
applications of the model is the urban region of Dortmund. The
common database will be compiled in co-operation with the City
of Dortmund. After its completion the integrated model is to be
used for assessing the impacts of potential transport and land
use policies for the new land use plan of the city.
The paper will focus on the land-use parts of the ILUMASS
model. It will present the underlying behavioural theories and
how they are made operational in the model design, explain how
the synthetic population is generated, show first model results
and demonstrate the potential usefulness of the model for the
planning process.
},
status = {read},
annote = {
Interesting. They've adapted the IRPUD land use project for a new
integrated model. They do some major rasters (200 000 cells) for
some of their lookups, although they're also interested in
environmental indicators as well as transport results. They don't
operate on a parcel-level due to local privacy legislation; instead
they work on a zonal level, combined with a density plot of unknown
detail.
},
keywords = {transport modelling, spatial modelling, land use transport link}
}
@incollection{PraDia00,
author = {Poulicos Prastacos and Manolis Diamandakis},
title = {Applying {GIS} Technology in Operational Urban Models},
editor = {A.~Stewart Fotheringham and Michael Wegener},
booktitle = {Spatial Models and {GIS}: New Potential and New Models},
year = 2000,
publisher = {Taylor and Francis},
address = {London, UK},
pages = {223--234},
keywords = {geographic information systems, spatial modelling, transport modelling},
status = {read},
annoteurl = { http://davidpritchard.org/sustrans/FotWeg00/index.html }
}
@incollection{SpiWeg00,
author = {Klaus Spiekermann and Michael Wegener},
title = {Freedom from the Tyranny of Zones: Towards New {GIS}-based
Spatial Models},
editor = {A.~Stewart Fotheringham and Michael Wegener},
booktitle = {Spatial Models and {GIS}: New Potential and New Models},
year = 2000,
publisher = {Taylor and Francis},
address = {London, UK},
pages = {45--61},
keywords = {geographic information systems, spatial modelling, transport modelling, equity},
status = {read},
annoteurl = { http://davidpritchard.org/sustrans/FotWeg00/index.html }
}
@article{TorOSu01,
author = {P.M.~Torrens and David O'Sullivan},
title = {Cellular Automata and Urban Simulation: where do we go from
here?},
year = 2001,
journal = {Environment and Planning B},
volume = 28,
number = 2,
pages = {163--168},
annote = {
High-level reflection on CA. Authors discuss relation between theory of
CA and practice (bastardization) in urban simulation. See calibration
as the biggest current issue, but also feel that many modelers get
caught up in modeling and don't contribute back to urban theory.
},
keywords = {spatial modelling, computer science},
status = {read}
}
@inproceedings{AbrHun01,
author = {John Edward Abraham and John Douglas Hunt},
title = {Dynamic microsimulation of heterogeneous spatial markets},
year = 2001,
month = jun,
booktitle = {Proceedings of the Workshop on Economics with
Heterogeneous Interacting Agents},
address = {Maastricht, The Netherlands},
keywords = {transport modelling, spatial modelling, ilute}
}
@inproceedings{AbrHun02,
author = {John Edward Abraham and John Douglas Hunt},
title = {Spatial market representations: concepts and application to
integrated planning models},
year = 2002,
month = nov,
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 49th Annual North American Meetings of
the Regional Science Association International},
address = {San Juan, Puerto Rico},
keywords = {transport modelling, spatial modelling, ilute}
}
@incollection{Axh98,
author = {Kay W.~Axhausen},
title = {Can we ever obtain the data we would like to have?},
booktitle = {Theoretical Foundations of Travel Choice Modelling},
editor = {K.~Westin},
year = 1998,
publisher = {Elsevier Science Ltd.},
address = {Oxford, UK},
pages = {305--323},
keywords = {transport modelling, spatial modelling}
}
@incollection{BatBoy86,
author = {D.F.~Batten and D.E.~Boyce},
title = {Spatial interaction, transportation, and interregional
commodity flow models},
editor = {P.~Nijkamp},
booktitle = {Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics},
volume = {1: Regional Economics},
year = 1986,
publisher = {North Holland},
address = {Amsterdam, The Netherlands},
pages = {357--406},
keywords = {transport modelling, spatial modelling}
}
@article{BurGueMatPumSan96,
author = {S.~Bura and F.~Gu{\'e}rin and H.~Mathian and D.~Pumain and
L.~Sanders},
title = {Multi-agent systems and the dynamics of a settlement system},
year = 1996,
journal = {Geographical analysis},
volume = 28,
number = 2,
pages = {161--178},
keywords = {computer science, spatial modelling}
}
@book{CliOrd73,
author = {A.D.~Cliff and J.K.~Ord},
title = {Spatial Autocorrelation},
year = 1973,
publisher = {Pion},
address = {London, UK},
keywords = {spatial modelling}
}
@article{FotWon91,
author = {A.~Stewart Fotheringham and D.W.~Wong},
title = {The modifiable areal unit problem and multivariate analysis},
year = 1991,
journal = {Environment and Planning A},
volume = 23,
pages = {1025--1044},
keywords = {spatial modelling}
}
@book{Gat83,
author = {A.C.~Gatrell},
title = {Distance and Space: A Geographical Perspective},
year = 1983,
publisher = {Clarendon Press},
address = {Oxford, UK},
keywords = {spatial modelling}
}
@article{Hag70,
author = {T.~H{\"a}gerstrand},
title = {What about people in regional science?},
year = 1970,
journal = {Papers of the Regional Science Association},
volume = 24,
number = 7,
pages = {7--21},
annote = {About activity-based vs. trip-based travel modelling},
keywords = {spatial modelling, transport modelling}
}
@incollection{Hag75,
author = {T.~H{\"a}gerstrand},
title = {Space, time and human conditions},
year = 1975,
editor = {A.~Karlqvist and L.~Lundqvist and F.~Snickars},
booktitle = {Dynamic Allocation of Urban Space},
publisher = {Saxon House},
address = {Farnborough, UK},
pages = {3--12},
keywords = {spatial modelling, transport modelling}
}
@article{Hag75b,
author = {T.~H{\"a}gerstrand},
title = {Survival and arena: on the life-history of individuals in
relation to their geographical environment},
year = 1975,
journal = {Monadnock},
volume = 49,
pages = {9--29},
keywords = {spatial modelling}
}
@incollection{Hag95,
author = {T.~H{\"a}gerstrand},
title = {Action in the physical everyday world},
year = 1995,
editor = {A.D.~Cliff and P.~Gould and A.~Hoare and N.~Thrift},
booktitle = {Diffusing Geography: Essays for {P}eter {H}aggett},
publisher = {Blackwell},
address = {Oxford, UK},
keywords = {spatial modelling}
}
@phdthesis{Hai03,
author = {Murtaza Haider},
title = {Spatio-temporal Modelling of Housing Starts in the {G}reater
{T}oronto {A}rea},
year = 2003,
school = {University of Toronto, Department of Civil Engineering},
address = {Toronto, ON, Canada},
keywords = {spatial modelling, ilute, canada},
url = {http://www.regionomics.com/Research/Doctoral/Thesis.htm}
}
@inproceedings{HaiMil99,
author = {Murtaza Haider and Eric J.~Miller},
title = {Effects of Transportation Infrastructure and Locational
Elements on Residential Real Estate Values},
year = 1999,
month = jan,
booktitle = {Proceedings of the Annual Transportation Research Board
Conference},
address = {Washington, D.C., USA},
keywords = {spatial modelling, ilute, urban planning, land use transport link},
url = {http://www.regionomics.com/Research/trb_99.PDF}
}
@article{HaiMil04,
author = {Murtaza Haider},
title = {Modeling Location Choices of Housing Builders in the {G}reater
{T}oronto, {C}anada, {A}rea},
year = 2004,
journal = {Transportation Research Record},
volume = 1898,
pages = {148--156},
keywords = {spatial modelling, ilute, canada, urban planning}
}
@book{Hai90,
author = {R.P.~Haining},
title = {Spatial Data Analysis in the Social and Environmental
Sciences},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
address = {Cambridge, UK},
year = 1990,
keywords = {spatial modelling}
}
@inproceedings{KhaAbrHun02,
author = {Azhar Shah Khan and John Edward Abraham and John Douglas Hunt},
title = {Agent-based microsimulation of business establishments},
year = 2002,
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 42nd Congress of the European Regional
Science Association},
publisher = {European Regional Science Assocation},
address = {Dortmund, Germany},
url = {http://www.raumplanung.uni-dortmund.de/rwp/ersa2002/cd-rom/papers/435.pdf},
abstract = {
This paper describes the development and testing of a
microsimulation of the evolution of individual ''business
establishments'' (BEs) in an economy. The work is part of a
larger program of research and development of a model of all
the transportation and land development processes in an entire
spatial economic system. The simulation uses comparatively
simple, yet behavioural, rules and probabilistic models, using
a Monte Carlo process to simulate behaviour from the
probabilistic models. A BE is described primarily by its
business transactions - its purchases and sales of standard
commodity categories, called its ``consumption function'' and
``production function'' respectively. Make and Use tables from
traditional input-output models are used to determine these
relationships for a particular industry, and individual BEs
randomly vary around the industry average. Labour, floorspace
and final demand are included as commodities, to bind the BEs
to a given built form in a spatial system and to the patterns
of population. Thus a BE is described in terms of how big it
is, and its ``technical coefficients'' describing what it
purchases and sells.
The market for each commodity type is spatially disaggregated,
and BEs in a given location can sell or purchase their commodities
in a variety of different ``exchange zones'' that they are
willing to ship goods or services from or to. Prices at
exchange zones are adjusted over time so that, if the system is
allowed to reach equilibrium, the market for each commodity in
each exchange will be cleared. The BE's market choice model is
used to develop measures of the attractiveness of selling or
purchasing commodities when located in a zone. These measures
of commodity attractiveness are used with the production
function and consumption function to determine how attractive a
location is for a given BE and how well it is performing. A
BE's growth (positive and negative) and its probability of
bankruptcy (death) are based on the measure of location
attractiveness. Relocation pressures are based on the measure
of location attractiveness, as well as a composite measure of
the attractiveness of all other zones in the system and the
(fixed) attractiveness of leaving the model region entirely.
Relocating BEs vacate floorspace in a particular physical
location (a ``grid cell'') and then, if necessary, acquire new
floorspace in a grid cell in a different zone. As a successful
BE grows it is increasingly likely to split into two separate
BEs, either as a duplication of function into another location,
or a separation of business functions into separate locations. In
addition, entrepreneurial business ideas are set up as ``Proto
BEs'', which are business ideas that are being evaluated in any
one year. A ``Proto BE'' that is in an attractive location in one
year is likely to become an actual BE in the next year. Within
each zone, the land is represented as ``grid cells'', which are
finite quantities of land with a particular type and quantity
of floorspace and a particular building age. The prices for
each floorspace type in each zone, along with the age, type and
quantity of floorspace in each grid cell, are used to calculate
the probability that the land owner will choose to undertake
development, redevelopment, renovation or demolition in the
grid cell. The test system is represented using a 10x10 system
of zones and a network of transport connecting the zones with
reasonable travel times and costs. This system is used to test
the role of the various parameters, to determine reasonable
values for the parameters, how the model behaves when parameter
values are unreasonable, and how each parameter influences the
model system. A set of ``policy input'' scenarios are also
developed, to show how the modelling system can be used to test
the policy response. These include decreased development costs,
increased travel costs and changed land-use zoning regulations.
},
keywords = {ilute, spatial modelling}
}
@article{Kri91,
author = {M.H.~Krieger},
title = {Segmentation and filtering into neighborhoods as processes of
percolation and diffusion: stochastic processes (randomness) as the
null hypothesis},
year = 1991,
journal = {Environment and Planning A},
volume = 23,
pages = {1609--1626},
keywords = {spatial modelling}
}
@article{Lan94,
author = {John D.~Landis},
title = {The {C}alifornia Urban Futures Model: a new generation of
metropolitan simulation models},
year = 1994,
journal = {Environment and Planning B},
volume = 21,
pages = {399--421},
keywords = {urban planning, spatial modelling}
}
@article{Lee73,
author = {Douglas B.~Lee},
title = {Requiem for Large Scale Urban Models},
journal = {Journal of the American Institute of Planners},
volume = 39,
number = 3,
pages = {163--178},
year = 1973,
keywords = {spatial modelling}
}
@article{LinFis96,
author = {Y.~Lin and P.A.~Fishwick},
title = {Asynchronous Parallel Discrete Event Simulation},
journal = {{IEEE} Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics},
volume = 26,
number = 4,
pages = {397--412},
year = 1996,
keywords = {computer science, spatial modelling}
}
@article{Mac74,
author = {J.~Mac{K}innon},
title = {Urban general equilibrium models and simplicial search
algorithms},
year = 1974,
journal = {Journal of Urban Economics},
volume = 1,
pages = {161--183},
keywords = {urban economics, spatial modelling},
annote = {early 2D Model of city}
}
@article{MoeSchSpiWeg03,
author = {Rolf Moeckel and Carsten Sch{\"u}rmann and K.~Spiekermann and
Michael Wegener},
title = {Microsimulation of Land Use},
year = 2003,
journal = {International Journal of Urban Sciences},
volume = 7,
number = 1,
pages = {14--31},
keywords = {transport modelling, spatial modelling}
}
@article{NotBorWad03,
author = {Michael Noth and Alan Borning and Paul Waddell},
title = {An Extensible, Modular Architecture for Simulating Urban
Development, Transportation and Environmental Impacts},
year = 2003,
month = mar,
journal = {Computers, Environment and Urban Systems},
volume = 27,
number = 2,
pages = {181--203},
keywords = {transport modelling, spatial modelling, urban economics}
}
@book{Ope84,
author = {S.~Openshaw},
title = {The Modifiable Areal Unit Problem},
year = 1984,
series = {Concepts and Techniques in Modern Geography},
volume = 38,
publisher = {Geo Books},
address = {Norwich, UK},
keywords = {spatial modelling}
}
@book{Osk97,
author = {A.~Oskamp},
title = {Local housing market simulation: a micro approach},
year = 1997,
publisher = {Thesis publishing},
address = {Amsterdam, The Netherlands},
keywords = {transport modelling, spatial modelling}
}
@inproceedings{Pho03,
author = {Yorgos N.~Photos},
title = {Simulation of urban system evolution in a synergetic modelling
framework: the case of {A}ttica, {G}reece},
year = 2003,
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 43rd Congress of the European Regional
Science Association},
publisher = {European Regional Science Assocation},
address = {Jyv{\"a}skyl{\"a}, Finland},
url = {http://www.jyu.fi/ersa2003/cdrom/papers/353.pdf},
abstract = {
Spatial analysis and evolution simulation of such complex and
dynamic systems as modern urban areas could greatly benefit
from the synergy of methods and techniques that constitute the
core of the fields of Information Technology and Artificial
Intelligence. Additionally, if during the decision making
process, a consistent methodology is applied and assisted by a
user-friendly interface, premium and pragmatic solution
strategies can be tested and evaluated.
In such a framework, this paper presents both a prototype
Decision Support System and a consorting spatio-temporal
methodology, for modelling urban growth. Its main focus is on
the analysis of current trends, the detection of the factors
that mostly affect the evolution process and the examination of
user-defined hypotheses regarding future states of the problem
environment.
According to the approach, a neural network model is formulated
for a specific time intervals and each different group of
spatial units, mainly based to the degree of their
contiguity and spatial interaction. At this stage,
fuzzy logic provides a precise image of spatial entities, further
exploited in a twofold way. First, for the analysis and
interpretation of up-to-date urban evolution and second, for
the formulation of a robust spatial simulation model. It should
be stressed, however, that the neural network model is not
solely used to define future urban images, but also to evaluate
the degree of influence that each variable as a significant of
problem parameter, contributes to the final result. Thus, the
formulation and the analysis of alternative planning scenarios
are assisted.
Both the proposed methodological framework and the prototype
Decision Support System are utilized during the study of
Attica, Greece's principal prefecture and the definition of a
twenty-year forecast. The variables considered and projected
refer to population data derived from the 1961-1991 censuses
and building uses aggregated in ten different categories. The
final results are visualised through thematic maps in a GIS
environment. Finally, the performance of the methodology is
evaluated as well as directions for further improvements and
enhancements are outlined.
},
keywords = {spatial modelling}
}
@article{Sto1940,
author = {S.A.~Stouffer},
title = {Intervening opportunities: a theory relating mobility and
distance},
year = 1940,
journal = {American Sociological Review},
volume = 5,
number = 6,
pages = {845--867},
keywords = {spatial modelling}
}
@article{Tes01,
author = {L.~Tesfatsion},
title = {Introduction to the {CE} Special Issue on Agent-Based
Computational Economics},
journal = {Computational Economics},
volume = 18,
number = 1,
year = 2001,
month = oct,
url = {http://www.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/ceintro.pdf},
keywords = {spatial modelling, computer science}
}
@techreport{Tes02,
author = {L.~Tesfatsion},
title = {Agent-Based Computational Economics},
institution = {Iowa State University},
type = {Economics Working Paper},
number = 1,
year = 2002,
month = jul,
url = {http://www.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/acewp1.pdf},
keywords = {spatial modelling, computer science}
}
@article{WadBorNotFreBecUlf03,
author = {Paul Waddell and Alan Borning and Michael Noth and Nathan
Freier and Michael Becke and Gudmundur F.~Ulfarsson},
title = {Microsimulation of Urban Development and Location Choices:
Design and Implementation of {U}rban{S}im},
year = 2003,
journal = {Networks and Spatial Economics},
volume = 3,
number = 1,
pages = {43--67},
keywords = {urban economics, spatial modelling, transport modelling}
}
@article{Weg01,
author = {Michael Wegener},
title = {New spatial planning models},
year = 2001,
journal = {International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and
Geoinformation},
volume = 3,
number = 3,
pages = {224--237},
keywords = {spatial modelling, transport modelling}
}
@incollection{Wil72,
author = {A.G.~Wilson},
title = {Some recent development in micro-economic approaches to
modelling household behaviour, with special reference to
spatio-temporal organization},
year = 1972,
editor = {A.G.~Wilson},
booktitle = {Papers in Urban and Regional Analysis},
publisher = {Pion},
address = {London, UK},
pages = {216--236},
keywords = {spatial modelling, urban economics}
}
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