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@article{Cer03,
author = {Robert Cervero},
title = {Road Expansion, Urban Growth, and Induced Travel: A Path
Analysis},
journal = {Journal of the American Planning Association},
year = 2003,
volume = 69,
number = 2,
pages = {145--163},
url = {http://www.planning.org/newsreleases/pdf/Cervero.pdf},
quality = 5,
keywords = {transport planning, induced travel, urban form, land use transport link},
abstract = {
Claims that roadway investments spur new travel, known as induced
demand, and thus fail to relieve traffic congestion have
thwarted road development in the United States. Past studies
point to a significant induced demand effect. This research
employs a path model to causally sort out the links between
freeway investments and traffic increases, using data for 24
California freeway projects across 15 years. Traffic increases
are explained in terms of both faster travel speeds and land
use shifts that occur in response to adding freeway lanes.
While the path model confirms the presence of induced travel in
both the short and longer run, estimated elasticities are lower
than those of earlier studies. This research also reveals
significant ``induced growth'' and ``induced investment''
effects---real estate development gravitates to improved
freeways, and traffic increases spawn road investments over
time. Travel-forecasting models are needed that account for
these dynamics.
},
annote = {
A much more sophisticated methodology to help untangle a
complicated problem. The model suggests that it may be possible to
build out of congestion without road pricing, although the
author speculates that the ultimate urban form may look something
like Houston. An interesting side note is the role of density,
which exerts a strong influence on the level of induced demand.
Unfortunately, since the dataset is from Southern California where
truly high densities are rare, the model cannot say too much about
roadway expansion in dense areas.
}
}
@book{Dow92,
author = {Anthony Downs},
title = {Stuck in Traffic: Coping with Peak-Hour Traffic Congestion},
year = 1992,
publisher = {Brookings Institution Press},
address = {Washington, D.C., USA},
keywords = { transport planning, congestion pricing, transportation demand management, transit, land use transport link, urban form, induced travel, zoning },
status = {read},
annoteurl = {http://davidpritchard.org/sustrans/Dow92/index.html}
}
@book{Dow04,
author = {Anthony Downs},
title = {Still Stuck in Traffic: Coping with Peak-Hour Traffic Congestion},
year = 2004,
publisher = {Brookings Institution Press},
address = {Washington, D.C., USA},
status = {read},
keywords = { transport planning, congestion pricing, transportation demand management, transit, land use transport link, urban form, induced travel, zoning },
annoteurl = {http://davidpritchard.org/sustrans/Dow92/index.html}
}
@article{HunBroSte02,
author = {John Douglas Hunt and Alan T.~Brownlee and Kevin J.~Stefan},
title = {Response to {C}entre {S}treet {B}ridge closure: where the
``disappearing'' travellers went},
year = 2002,
journal = {Transportation Research Record},
volume = 1807,
keywords = {induced travel, canada, transport modelling, streets, roadspace reallocation },
url = {http://www.ucalgary.ca/\%7Ejabraham/Papers/centrest/TRB_CENT.pdf},
status = {read},
abstract = {
An ongoing topic of interest in urban transportation engineering is
the impact of changes in road network capacity upon the amount
of vehicle travel made in the urban area. In many cases the
debate focuses on the potential increases in vehicle travel
occurring with increases in road capacity - the phenomenon of
``induced demand''. Some studies have also looked at the effects
of reductions in roadway capacity, and found that in many of
these cases reductions in vehicle travel occur, generally
confirming that a relationship exists between roadway capacity
and vehicle travel.
This paper provides additional information on this subject, in
a North American context.
The City of Calgary, in Alberta, Canada is a thriving major
urban centre with a population of over 850,000, and a Downtown
employment of over 100,000. Centre Street Bridge is a major
road bridge across the Bow River connecting Downtown Calgary to
the residential area in the north part of the City. The bridge
carries over 34,000 vehicles per day, with heavy peak period
flows. In August of 1999 the Centre Street Bridge was closed to
car and truck traffic for a period of 14 months for major
repairs.
A detailed study was undertaken of changes in weekday traffic,
transit and pedestrian flows changes that took place in weekday
travel patterns during the closure. This included both analysis
of observed count data before and during the closure; and an
interview survey with over 1,300 car users of the Centre Street
Bridge and the other bridges serving the north side of the
Downtown.
This paper summarizes the major findings of this study.
Particular emphasis is placed on explaining what happened to
the vehicle trips that used the Bridge before the closure.
},
annote = {
While I'm not pleased with the results they report, I'm not too
surprised. I imagine some of this can be attributed to the fact
that it's car-addicted Calgary, but it's still a disappointing
result: very little mode shift (<10\%). On the upside, the city
didn't stop working during the bridge closure; drivers just had to
shift their travel times and routes. This isn't very politically
acceptable, though; many would feel hard done by if this occurred
during a Burrard Bridge lane closure.
}
}
@article{Lit01,
author = {Todd A.~Litman},
title = {Generated Traffic and Induced Travel: Implications for
Transport Planning},
year = 2004,
journal = {Institute of Transportation Engineers Journal},
month = apr,
pages = {38--47},
volume = 71,
number = 4,
url = {http://www.vtpi.org/gentraf.pdf},
keywords = {transport planning, induced travel},
status = {read}
}
@article{Bar00,
author = {L.~Barr},
title = {Testing for the significance of induced highway travel demand
in metropolitan areas},
year = 2000,
journal = {Transportation Research Record},
volume = 1706,
pages = {1--8},
keywords = {induced travel, land use transport link}
}
@article{Bon96,
author = {P.~Bonsall},
title = {Can induced traffic be measured by surveys?},
year = 1996,
journal = {Transportation},
volume = 23,
pages = {17--34},
keywords = {induced travel, land use transport link}
}
@article{Cer02b,
author = {Robert Cervero},
title = {Induced Travel Demand: Research Design, Empirical Evidence,
and Normative Policies},
year = 2002,
journal = {Journal of Planning Literature},
volume = 17,
number = 1,
pages = {3--20},
keywords = {induced travel}
}
@article{CerHan02,
author = {Robert Cervero and M.~Hansen},
title = {Induced travel demand and induced road investment: a
simultaneous-equation analysis},
year = 2002,
journal = {Journal of Transport Economics and Policy},
volume = 36,
number = 3,
pages = {469--490},
keywords = {induced travel, transport planning, land use transport link}
}
@article{Coo96,
author = {D.~Coombe},
title = {Induced traffic: what do transportation models tell us?},
year = 1996,
journal = {Transportation},
volume = 23,
number = 1,
pages = {83--101},
keywords = {transport modelling, induced travel}
}
@article{DeCCoh99,
author = {P.~De{C}orla-Souza and H.~Cohen},
title = {Estimating induced travel for evaluation of metropolitan
highway expansion},
year = 1999,
journal = {Transportation},
volume = 26,
pages = {249--262},
keywords = {transport modelling, induced travel}
}
@article{Dow62,
author = {Anthony Downs},
title = {The Law of Peak-Hour Expressway Congestion},
year = 1962,
journal = {Traffic Quarterly},
volume = 33,
pages = {347--362},
keywords = {transport planning, transport modelling, induced travel}
}
@article{FulMesNolTho00,
author = {L.~Fulton and D.~Meszler and R.~Noland and J.~Thomas},
title = {A statistical analysis of induced travel effects in the
{U.S.~M}id-{A}tlantic region},
year = 2000,
journal = {Journal of Transportation and Statistics},
volume = 3,
number = 1,
pages = {1--14},
keywords = {induced travel, land use transport link}
}
@article{Goo96,
author = {Phil Goodwin},
title = {Empirical Evidence on Induced Traffic},
year = 1996,
journal = {Transportation},
volume = 23,
number = 1,
pages = {35--54},
keywords = { induced travel, land use transport link }
}
@article{Han95,
author = {M.~Hansen},
title = {Do New Highways Generate Traffic?},
year = 1995,
journal = {Access Magazine},
volume = 7,
number = 2,
pages = {16--22},
keywords = {induced travel, transport planning}
}
@article{HanHua97,
author = {M.~Hansen and Y.L.~Huang},
title = {Road Supply and Traffic in Urban Areas: A Panel Study},
year = 1997,
journal = {Transportation Research A},
volume = 31,
pages = {205--218},
keywords = {transport planning, induced travel, land use transport link}
}
@article{Hea97,
author = {K.~Heanue},
title = {Highway capacity and induced travel: Issues, evidence and
implications},
year = 1997,
journal = {Transportation Research Circular},
volume = 418,
pages = {33--45},
keywords = {induced travel, land use transport link}
}
@article{Hil96,
author = {P.~Hill},
title = {What is induced traffic?},
year = 1996,
journal = {Transportation},
volume = 23,
pages = {5--16},
keywords = {induced travel, land use transport link}
}
@article{LeeKleCam99,
author = {D.~Lee and L.~Klein and G.~Camus},
title = {Induced traffic and induced demand},
year = 1999,
journal = {Transportation Research Record},
volume = 1659,
pages = {68--75},
keywords = {induced travel, land use transport link}
}
@article{MogHolBirTer87,
author = {M.J.H.~Mogridge and D.J.~Holden and J.~Bird and G.C.~Terzis},
title = {The {D}owns/{T}homson Paradox and the Transportation Planning
Process},
year = 1987,
journal = {International Journal of Transport Economics},
volume = 14,
number = 3,
pages = {283--311},
keywords = {transport planning, land use transport link, induced travel}
}
@article{Mog97,
author = {M.J.H.~Mogridge},
title = {The self-defeating nature of urban road capacity policy: A
review of theories, disputes and available evidence},
year = 1997,
journal = {Transport Policy},
volume = 4,
number = 1,
pages = {5--23},
keywords = {transport planning, land use transport link, induced travel}
}
@article{NolLem02,
author = {Robert B.~Noland and Lewison L.~Lem},
title = {A review of the evidence for induced travel and changes in
transportation and environmental policy in the {US} and the {UK}},
year = 2002,
journal = {Transportation Research D},
volume = 7,
number = 1,
pages = {1--26},
abstract = {
This paper reviews recent research into the demand inducing effects
of new transportation capacity. We begin with a discussion of
the basic theoretical background and then review recent
research both in the UK and the US. Results of this research
show strong evidence that new transportation capacity induces
increased travel, both due to short run effects and long run
changes in land use development patterns. While this topic has
long been debated amongst transportation planners, the
fundamental hypothesis and theory has long been apparent in
studies of transportation economics and planning that evaluated
different issues (e.g. travel time budgets and urban economic
development effects). We summarize much of this work
and relate the theoretical issues to recent empirical research.
We then proceed to examine recent changes in transportation and
environmental policy in the US and the UK. The role of the new
knowledge of induced travel effects would be expected to lead
to changes in the conduct of transportation and environmental
policy. Changes in policy and implementation of those policies
are still occurring and we provide some suggestions on how to
move forward in these areas.
},
keywords = { induced travel, land use transport link }
}
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